We are a blazing 4 out of 4 in MNF matchups. Here are the picks our model likes the most for tonight!
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (7:15 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL)
❌ Jets +2.5 ATS (Convergence: 82) - Value dog convergence, divisional trends.
Reason: (opened +3, minor downward move suggesting possible RLM toward Jets as public leans Dolphins). Betting splits show 54% money on Dolphins but early sharp reports note leans on Jets as road dogs in divisional spot. ESPN FPI favors Dolphins by 2.2 (56% win prob), but Jets' offensive FPI (2.1) edges Miami's amid Tua Tagovailoa's prime-time struggles (5-9 ATS, 0-4 at home). PFF highlights Jets' rushing EPA efficiency (top 10) exploiting Miami's run defense vulnerabilities, while Dolphins' secondary coverage grades lag against Jets' mobile QB threats. Historical trends: Week 4 road divisional dogs cover 59% ATS since 2020; MNF dogs with 1+ point RLM hit 57%. Weather: 78-83°F, partly cloudy with high humidity (80-88%), 13% precip chance, winds 6-13 mph could favor run-heavy scripts, aiding Jets' ground game. (Jets cover via defensive stops and efficient rushes). Convergence Score: 82 (Strong sharp convergence on Jets as value dog, with expert leans and line stability).
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (8:15 p.m. ET, Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO)
✅ Broncos -7.5 ATS (Convergence: 88) - Dominant sharp money, defensive metrics edge.
Reason: (opened -8.5, slight downward adjustment but heavy money (71%) on Denver covering). Sharp reports strongly favor Broncos, with line stability amid public pile-on. ESPN FPI ranks Broncos high (elite defense at 3.4), while Bengals lag at -1.2 overall, vulnerable on road. PFF notes Broncos' pass rush grades (top 5) exploiting Bengals' OL weaknesses, with Denver's secondary coverage limiting EPA. Historical trends: Week 4 home favorites of 7+ cover 61% ATS since 2015; no RLM here reinforces sharp home lean. Weather: 72°F, low humidity (41%), 23% precip chance, light winds (6 mph)—ideal for Denver's defensive scheme. (Broncos cover with dominant defense). Convergence Score: 88 (High. Overwhelming sharp money splits and expert backing for Broncos).
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The EdgeScout