Oh, what a night! That's 2 out of 2 ✅ ✅ for our model.
We've been blazing a hot trail in picks all season. However, our model has struggled on SNF (0-2). Keeping this in mind, we still want to share what the model thinks. Here is what the model predicts for tonight's matchup. Tail or Fade responsibly. Let's stack up some more wins!
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (8:20 PM ET, Highmark Stadium)
- ATS Pick: Patriots +7.5 ✅, Convergence Score: 89
- Reasoning: RLM from +8.5 to +7.5 vs. public on BUF. FPI: BUF 70% win by 6 points. PFF: NE OL (71.9 grade) withstands BUF rush; Patriots' secondary (74.8 coverage) caps explosives. Week 5 insight: SNF dogs +7+ with RLM cover 59%.
- O/U Pick: Under 49.5 ✅, Convergence Score: 72
- Reasoning: Moderate pro lean to under with stable line but implied sharp caution on high total (opened ~49-50.5 across books). FPI sees ~50 points, but BUF home overs tempered by NE's defensive EPA (~0.048 allowed). Week 5 insight: SNF unders hit 56% at 49+ totals when road team has bottom-10 rush EPA (NE 30th). Mild weather no drag on scoring, but defenses cap big plays.
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. For entertainment only. All picks hypothetical for fun—gamble responsibly!
The EdgeScout