After nailing both picks last night on SNF, let's see if our model can keep the streak alive on MNF. Will the Chiefs be able to cover? Will weather play a factor? Here is what our model thinks.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (8:15 PM ET, EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL)
ATS Pick: Jaguars +3.5 ✅
Convergence Score: 85 (High; sharp convergence on underdog due to RLM).
Reason: Line opened at Chiefs -4.5 but moved to -3.5 despite 70% public bets/75% handle on Chiefs covering, indicating classic RLM (sharp money on Jaguars forcing adjustment). Sharp indicators lean toward Dogs at home. ESPN FPI implies ~52% Chiefs win probability, but PFF metrics favor situational edge for Jaguars. Their defense ranks higher in EPA allowed vs. pass (+0.05) against Chiefs' pass-heavy offense, while Chiefs' OL (82.4 grade) faces Jaguars' improved secondary (72.1 coverage grade, limiting big plays). Chiefs' road EPA/play drops to +0.08 offensively; Jaguars at home improve to -0.05 defensively.
O/U Pick: Under 46.5 ❌
Convergence Score: 78 (Moderate; weather-driven convergence, limited sharp signals on total).
Reason: Weather Impacts: Watch for possible Thunderstorms (66% chance), rain, and winds likely disrupt passing, favoring ground game and clock control. Total movement mixed (opened ~46, slight uptick to 47.5 in some books, but ESPN holds 45.5), with no clear RLM on O/U. Public leans Over (60% bets), but some sharp picks favor Under due to defensive matchups.
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The EdgeScout