Result: ✅✅✅! That’s 3 out of 4! Just missing all 4 by the hook.
Our model has crunched the numbers and it's time to lock in! We have a double header tonight in MNF action. We are giving you our models picks for both games ATS and O/U for you to savor. Tail or Fade responsibly. Good luck and let's stack up some more wins!
Picks Ordered by Game Time
(Watch for Early Kickoff 7:15 PM Eastern on First Game)
Falcons +3.5 (ATS) 🔥
🏈 Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (Oct 13, 2025, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN)
🎯 Pick: Falcons +3.5✅
📈 Convergence Score: 84
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~63%
📝 Why: The line tightening to +3.5 (from +4.5) amplifies sharp value, with 68% handle on Falcons (VegasInsider) driving RLM against 80% public Bills tickets—now even more favorable for Atlanta to cover a smaller number. Sharps are like Falcons +3.5 despite public tickets on Buffalo, signaling value on the home dog. Atlanta’s OL (PFF top-12 pass-blocking) protects QB Michael Penix Jr., while their top-15 Defensive DVOA exploits Buffalo’s mid-tier WR corps (PFF separation grade: 68). FPI projects a tight game, and indoor conditions favor Atlanta’s balanced attack post-bye. Home dogs +3 to +4 cover ~60% ATS in Week 5-8
Bills at Falcons Under 49.5 (O/U) 🔥
🏈 Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (Oct 13, 2025, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN)
🎯 Pick: Under 49.5 ✅
📈 Convergence Score: 81
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~61%
📝 Why: Sharps are fading the public’s Over love, dropping the total from 50 to 49.5. Atlanta’s top-15 coverage EPA (PFF) limits Buffalo’s passing game. FPI projects ~46 points, and Atlanta’s run-heavy pace (PFF RB grade: 80) keeps the clock moving. Indoor conditions favor a controlled, defensive battle. Monday Night Unders hit ~53% with totals near 50 in non-divisional games.
Bears +5 (ATS)
🏈 Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (Oct 13, 2025, 8:15 PM ET, ABC)
🎯 Pick: Bears +5✅
📈 Convergence Score: 79
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~58%
📝 Why: I bit riskier with late movements, however, line widening to +5 (from +4.5) reduces value slightly, as 62% sharp handle faces headwinds from public Washington bets (68% tickets), but RLM from +4 to +5 still signals pro fading of Commanders. Bears’ OL (PFF top-15 run-blocking) fuels QB Caleb Williams (EPA +0.10 per pass), while Commanders’ DL injuries weaken their front. FPI sees a close game. Road dogs +5 to +6 cover ~52% ATS in Weeks 5-8.
Bears at Commanders Over 49.5 (O/U)
🏈 Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (Oct 13, 2025, 8:15 PM ET, ABC)
🎯 Pick: Over 49.5❌
📈 Convergence Score: 79
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~59%
📝 Why: Sharps (53%) and public (60%) align on the Over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 49.5. Both offenses are clicking (Commanders PFF grade: 78; Bears: 75), and Chicago’s secondary (PFF coverage EPA: -0.08) is vulnerable to big plays. Commanders’ DL injuries aid Bears’ run game. FPI projects ~50 points, and light winds favor passing. Overs hit ~54% in Monday non-divisional games with totals near 49.
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. For entertainment only. All picks hypothetical for fun—gamble responsibly!
The EdgeScout