Our model has been solid on Thursday Night Football covering 62% (3 out of 4 on ATS 75% and 2 out of 4 on O/U 50%). Tail or Fade, it's up to you. Let's stack up some more wins.
✅ 1 - 1
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Oct 16, 8:15 PM ET, Amazon Prime)
🎯 Pick: Under 45 ❌
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📝 Key Reasoning: Sharps back Under 45 (60% of bets) despite 65% public handle on Over, with the total rising from 42.5 to 45 but resisting further movement. ESPN FPI projects ~44 points, aligning with Under. Steelers’ top-5 defense (PFF grade 88.5, EPA allowed -0.15) limits Bengals’ scoring, especially with Joe Burrow sidelined. Bengals’ 26th-ranked secondary (PFF grade 59.5) allows Steelers’ run heavy offense to control possession, reducing plays. Expecting a ground-based, lower-scoring game. Thursday Night Football unders hit 60% for totals between 42.5–45.5 since 2020.
🎯 Pick: Bengals +5 ✅
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~63%
📝 Key Reasoning: Sharp money (58% of bets) favors Bengals +5 despite 70% public handle on Steelers, with the line moving from -5.5 to -5, signaling reverse line movement. ESPN FPI projects Steelers by 4 points, indicating value on Bengals. Steelers’ elite defense (PFF grade 88.5) faces a Bengals offense led by Joe Flacco (PFF grade 68.0), but Ja’Marr Chase (PFF grade 85.0) and potentially Tee Higgins exploit Pittsburgh’s 18th-ranked secondary (PFF grade 65.0). Burrow’s absence is offset by Flacco’s experience, and Steelers’ defensive injuries (Lowry, Loudermilk) weaken their interior. divisional home dogs of +5 or more cover ~56% ATS in primetime games, despite Steelers’ 4-0 ATS vs. Bengals since 2023.
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The EdgeScout