Listed in order of game start time (customer request)
*Convergence Scores (Above 80 is considered ~60% probability)
Sundays have been tough on the computer this season. So Tail or Fade responsibly. Have fun!
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (9:30 a.m. ET, Dublin, Ireland - Neutral Site)
ATS Pick: Steelers +2.5 ✅ (*Convergence Score: 85)
Reasoning: Opening line MIN -1, current MIN -2.5 despite 60% public bets on MIN but 62% money on PIT, indicating potential sharp action on PIT with minor RLM. FPI gives MIN 57.8% win prob (projected spread ~ -3.1), PIT's secondary (top 10 per PFF) matching well vs MIN's OL (mid-tier EPA). Historical Week 4 trend: Road dogs in international games cover 60% ATS since 2015. Weather: Mild 57°F, mist possible, low wind (9 mph) - minimal impact on passing.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET)
ATS Pick: Falcons -1.5 ✅ (*Convergence Score: 92)
Reasoning: Major RLM from WSH -2.5 open to ATL -1.5 current, with 66% public on WSH but 70% money on ATL - clear sharp convergence on ATL. FPI predicts WSH 58.6% (~ +3.9 projected), but PFF OL grades favor ATL (top-15) vs WSH secondary (bottom-10 coverage). Historical: Home favorites in Week 4 after loss cover 58% ATS. Weather: Dome - no impact.
Titans @ TexansTexans (1 p.m. ET)
ATS Pick: Texans -6.5 ✅ (*Convergence Score: 88)
Reasoning: Line from -6 to -6.5, trends Texans 14-5 ATS Week 4. FPI HOU 69.3% (~ -7.9). PFF Texans secondary top-2. Historical: HOU 6-2 ATS favored 6-8. Weather: Retractable roof, likely closed.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET)
ATS Pick: Lions -9.5 ✅ (*Convergence Score: 82)
Reasoning: Line from DET -8 to -9.5, public on DET, but trends show Lions 70% ATS since 2020. FPI DET 78.1% (~ -12). PFF Lions secondary top-3, CLE OL low EPA. Historical: DET 36-14-1 ATS last 3 years. Weather: Dome.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET)
ATS Pick: Ravens -2.5 ❌(*Convergence Score: 87) Reasoning: Line stable, FPI not direct, but PFF secondary Ravens #1. Historical: BAL 4-1 ATS vs KC. Weather: 82°F, sunny.
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. For entertainment only. All picks hypothetical for fun—gamble responsibly!
The EdgeScout