Football fans, buckle up for an electrifying Thursday Night Football clash as the Miami Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills tonight at 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video! Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, sets the stage for this AFC East rivalry, with perfect weather (52°F, clear skies, and a light 5 mph breeze) promising a high-octane game under the lights. We’ve crunched the numbers to bring you two picks that could give you an edge. Let’s dive into the action!
Why This Game Matters
The Dolphins, (once known for their explosive offense), face a tough test against a Bills team led by a beast in Josh Allen and his elite running and arm. Miami’s secondary can be scrappy, but can they slow down Buffalo’s high-powered attack? Divisional game means it's for bragging rights in this heated rivalry, this game is a must-watch.
🏈 Game: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Sep 18, 2025, 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video)
🎯 Pick: Dolphins +11.5
📝 Key Reasoning: Sharps (60%) back Miami +11.5 despite 72% public handle on Buffalo -11.5, with the line moving from -10 to -11.5, indicating slight RLM buyback. PFF grades show Miami’s secondary (80) can limit Buffalo’s passing game (WRs: 83), while FPI projects a closer game (Buffalo -10.2). Miami’s speed (Tua’s EPA/pass: 0.12) exploits Buffalo’s average LB coverage (PFF: 78). Historical trends show Thursday night underdogs with 10+ point spreads cover 57% in Weeks 2-4 (2015-2024). Clear weather favors Miami keeping it competitive.
🎯 Pick: Over 50.5
📝 Key Reasoning: Sharp money (65%) aligns with 68% public bets on the Over, pushing the total from 48.5 to 50.5. Buffalo’s OL (PFF: 88) dominates Miami’s DL (76), allowing Josh Allen (PFF: 90) to exploit Miami’s 28th-ranked EPA defense (-0.10 EPA/play). FPI projects ~52 points, and Week 3 Thursday night games with 2+ point total increases hit the Over 56% (2015-2024). Clear skies and light winds favor passing, boosting scoring potential.
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. For entertainment only. All picks hypothetical for fun—gamble responsibly!
The EdgeScout