Ordered by Game Time
Our NFL Model has been solid in NFL Sunday Day games (7 out of 12 ATS).
Tail or Fade Responsibly!
⚔️ Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (9:30 a.m. ET, London - Neutral) 🇬🇧
- ATS Pick: Vikings -3.5 ✅ (Convergence Score: 89)
- ⚔️ Why: Line moved from MIN -4.5 to -3.5, with 58% public but 65% money on MIN—sharp support per Action Network. Browns' rookie QB Dillon Gabriel debuts vs. MIN's top-10 secondary (PFF coverage grade 88.2); CLE benched Flacco after 1-3 start.
- 📉. FPI gives MIN 62.4% win prob (~ -4.2 spread). PFF: CLE’s D-line elite, but MIN’s secondary top-10. Week 5 trend: International game favorites cover 62% ATS since 2018 🎯.
🦅 Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. ET)
- ATS Pick: Eagles -4.5 ❌ (Convergence Score: 91)
- 🏟️ Why: Line moved from PHI -5 to -6.5, with 68% public and money on PHI—sharp convergence per VSiN
- 📈. FPI: PHI 68.7% (~ -7.8 spread). PFF: Eagles OL top-5, DEN secondary bottom-10 coverage 😬. Week 5 home favorites 6+ cover 61% ATS
- Partly cloudy, 78°F, 8 mph
🐬 Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. ET)
- ATS Pick: Dolphins -1.5 ❌ (Convergence Score: 86)
- 🌊 Why: RLM from CAR, with 66% public and money on MIA 🐬. PFF: MIA secondary top-15, CAR OL low EPA. Week 5 road favorites cover 60% ATS on RLM. Major movement (3 points); injuries/public lean on CAR tightened it.
- Weather: Sunny, 82°F
✈️ Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (1 p.m. ET)
- ATS Pick: Jets +2.5 ❌ (Convergence Score: 84)
- 🛩️ Why: Line moved from NYJ +3.5 to +2.5, with 62% public on DAL but potential RLM—sharps on NYJ 🤑. FPI: DAL 55.1% (~ -1.9 spread), value on Jets. PFF: NYJ OL improving EPA, DAL secondary mid-tier. Week 5 home dogs cover 59% ATS with 1+ point RLM.
- Weather: Sunny, 83°F
🏴☠️ Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (4:05 p.m. ET)
- ATS Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 ✅ (Convergence Score: 87)
- 🏈 Why: Line tightened from SEA -4.5 to -3.5, RLM with public on SEA—sharps on TB 🤑. FPI: SEA 53.7% (~ -1.2 spread), value on TB. PFF: TB secondary high grades ✨. Bucs 9-2 ATS in similar spots 📜.
- Weather: Overcast, 68°F
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The EdgeScout