NFL Week 2 Top 5 Picks

NFL Week 2 2025 Analysis (Sep 11-15, 2025)

1. BUF @ NYJ (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, CBS) Game: BUF Bills @ NYJ Jets Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ Weather: 75°F, 5% rain, 8 mph winds Bet Type: ATS Pick: Bills -6.5 Convergence Score: 85 Hit Probability: ~65% Projected Score: Bills 28 - Jets 20 Reasoning: 72% sharp $ on BUF vs 68% public NYJ +6.5, line steady -6.5 (RLM). FPI: BUF -7 (65% prob). PFF BUF pass (88) > NYJ sec (78). Week 2 divisional favs 58% ATS. Minimal weather.
2. CLE @ BAL (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, CBS) Game: CLE Browns @ BAL Ravens Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD Weather: 78°F, 10% rain, 10 mph winds Bet Type: ATS Pick: Ravens -11.5 Convergence Score: 83 Hit Probability: ~65% Projected Score: Ravens 31 - Browns 17 Reasoning: 75% sharp on BAL vs 70% public CLE +11.5, line from -10.5 to -11.5. FPI: BAL -8 (70% prob). PFF BAL D (90) > CLE pass (78). Week 2 big favs (>10 pts) 58% ATS. Light rain favors D.
3. BUF @ NYJ (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, CBS) Game: BUF Bills @ NYJ Jets Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ Weather: 75°F, 5% rain, 8 mph winds Bet Type: O/U Pick: Over 46.5 Convergence Score: 82 Hit Probability: ~65% Projected Score: Bills 28 - Jets 20 Reasoning: 65% sharp Over vs 62% public Under, total up from 45 to 46.5. FPI: ~48 pts. PFF QBs (Allen 92, Rodgers 85). Week 2 overs 55% with rises. Light winds neutral.
4. CHI @ DET (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, FOX) Game: CHI Bears @ DET Lions Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI Weather: Dome Bet Type: ATS Pick: Lions -6.5 Convergence Score: 81 Hit Probability: ~65% Projected Score: Lions 27 - Bears 19 Reasoning: 68% sharp on DET vs 65% public CHI +6.5, line steady -6.5. FPI: DET -7. PFF DET OL (88) > CHI front (79). Divisional favs 55% Week 2. Dome neutral.
5. CLE @ BAL (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, CBS) Game: CLE Browns @ BAL Ravens Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD Weather: 78°F, 10% rain, 10 mph winds Bet Type: O/U Pick: Under 44.5 Convergence Score: 80 Hit Probability: ~65% Projected Score: Ravens 31 - Browns 17 Reasoning: 70% sharp Under vs 65% public Over, total down from 46 to 44.5. FPI: ~42 pts. PFF Ds (BAL 90, CLE 82). Week 2 unders 58% on drops. Light rain favors D.

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