As the NFL season heats up, Week 2 delivers a slate packed with divisional rivalries and redemption arcs. After a thrilling Week 1 that saw dramatic comebacks and defensive stands, bettors are eyeing value in the early Sunday games. We're focusing on three standout matchups: the Buffalo Bills facing the New York Jets, the Cleveland Browns taking on the Baltimore Ravens, and the Chicago Bears clashing with the Detroit Lions. These games highlight sharp money diverging from public sentiment, bolstered by advanced metrics from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades. With mild weather across the board and dome protection in Detroit, expect strategic battles on the gridiron. Let's dive into the picks, projections, and what fans need to know—whether you're tailgating, fantasy drafting, or placing a wager.
1. Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)
🏈 Game: BUF Bills @ NYJ Jets
🏟️ Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: 75°F, 5% rain, 8 mph winds
This AFC East showdown pits Josh Allen's high-octane Bills (1-0 after a wild 41-40 comeback win over Baltimore) against a Jets squad (0-1) still searching for consistency following a gritty loss to Pittsburgh. Allen's MVP-caliber arm (PFF passing grade: 92) faces a Jets secondary graded at 78 by PFF, but Buffalo's explosive offense should exploit mismatches. The Jets' ground game, led by Breece Hall, showed promise in Week 1, but they'll need it against a Bills D that forced a crucial fumble late last week.
⚖️ Bet Type: ATS
🎯 Pick: Bills -6.5
📈 Convergence Score: 85
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📊 Projected Score: Bills 28 - Jets 20
📝 Key Reasoning: Sharp money (72% of dollars) is piling on Buffalo despite 68% of public bets fading them with the Jets +6.5— the line has held steady at -6.5, signaling reverse line movement (RLM) in favor of the favorite. FPI projects Buffalo winning by 7 with a 65% outright probability, aligning with their Week 2 divisional favorites covering 58% historically. PFF highlights Buffalo's superior passing efficiency over New York's coverage, and minimal weather impact keeps this a high-confidence spot for the Bills to build momentum. Fantasy tip: Allen is a must-start QB1, while Jets WR Garrett Wilson could bounce back with 8+ targets.
For those eyeing the total:
⚖️ Bet Type: O/U
🎯 Pick: Over 46.5
📈 Convergence Score: 82
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📊 Projected Score: Bills 28 - Jets 20
📝 Key Reasoning: 65% sharp action on the Over contrasts 62% public Unders, with the total climbing from 45 to 46.5 on offensive firepower—FPI sees ~48 points, PFF QBs Allen (92) and Aaron Rodgers (85) fuel the fire, and Week 2 overs hit 55% on rising totals. Light winds won't hinder the passing duel.
2. Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)
🏈 Game: CLE Browns @ BAL Ravens
🏟️ Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: 78°F, 10% rain, 10 mph winds
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (0-1) seek revenge after that gut-wrenching 41-40 loss to Buffalo, where their league-leading 238 rushing yards (PFF run grade: 90 for the D-line) weren't enough. The Browns (0-1), fresh off a narrow defeat, bring a stout defense (PFF: 82 overall) but a passing attack graded at 78 that struggled in Week 1. Joe Flacco's return to Baltimore adds emotional stakes—can Cleveland's revamped secondary hold up against Jackson's mobility? This could be a run-heavy affair in a stadium known for rowdy crowds.
⚖️ Bet Type: ATS
🎯 Pick: Ravens -11.5
📈 Convergence Score: 83
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📊 Projected Score: Ravens 31 - Browns 17
📝 Key Reasoning: 75% sharp dollars back Baltimore against 70% public on Cleveland +11.5, driving the line from -10.5 to -11.5. FPI favors the Ravens by 8 with 70% win probability, and PFF grades show Baltimore's elite D (90) overwhelming Cleveland's pass game—Week 2 big favorites (>10 points) cover 58% ATS, with light rain tilting toward defense but not enough to slow the home team. Fun fact: Eight of the last nine Ravens-Browns meetings were decided by 10 or fewer points, but Baltimore's hunger post-Week 1 tips the scales. Fantasy owners, start Derrick Henry—he's primed for 100+ yards.
On the flip side for totals:
⚖️ Bet Type: O/U
🎯 Pick: Under 44.5
📈 Convergence Score: 80
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📊 Projected Score: Ravens 31 - Browns 17
📝 Key Reasoning: 70% sharp Unders vs. 65% public Overs pushed the total down from 46 to 44.5, with FPI projecting ~42 points and PFF defenses (BAL 90, CLE 82) dominating—Week 2 unders on dropping totals hit 58%, and potential for light rain favors a gritty, low-scoring grind.
3. Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (Sun, Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
🏈 Game: CHI Bears @ DET Lions
🏟️ Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: Dome (controlled environment)
Ben Johnson's return to Ford Field as Bears OC spices this NFC North tilt, with Detroit (0-1) rebounding from a humbling loss to Green Bay. The Lions' offensive line (PFF: 88) should control the trenches against Chicago's front (79), but the Bears' young secondary held firm in Week 1. Expect a revenge-fueled Lions squad to unleash Jared Goff and a balanced attack in the dome—Chicago's Caleb Williams could shine, but Detroit's home energy might overwhelm.
⚖️ Bet Type: ATS
🎯 Pick: Lions -6.5
📈 Convergence Score: 81
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📊 Projected Score: Lions 27 - Bears 19
📝 Key Reasoning: 68% sharp money on Detroit vs. 65% public Bears +6.5, line steady at -6.5. FPI projects Lions by 7 (61% win prob), PFF OL edge favors Detroit's ground game, and divisional favorites cover 55% in Week 2—the dome neutralizes variables for a Lions bounce-back. Key storyline: Lions averaged just 3.8 yards per play last week (worst since 2020), but vs. Chicago's soft interior run D (3.3 yards before contact, 29th-ranked), expect a correction. Fantasy alert: Jahmyr Gibbs could see 20+ touches.
Quick Insights and Trends
These picks converge on sharp action (high Convergence Scores 80+), where pros bet against the crowd for edge. Week 2 divisional games often tighten, but FPI and PFF validate the favorites' talent gaps. Public bettors love dogs and Overs early, but history shows unders and favorites thriving post-Week 1 adjustments (58% ATS for big faves)
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. For entertainment only.
The EdgeScout