Let's keep this train rolling! We already Nailed 2 out of 2 on our NFL Week 3 Thursday Night picks! Here are more juicy picks for Sunday September 21 games.
Monday - Recap 9/22/2025:
Straight-up shutout on the covers, no sugarcoating it! The Week 3 dogs that were favored in the picks this week all tucked their tails and ran.
LOSER LOSER CHICKEN BOOZER.
On to the next slate. 🏈
A song dedication to the computer..."Why You Treat Me so Bad by Club Nouveau"
🏈 Game: Cheifs at Giants (Sunday Night Football)
🎯 Pick: Giants +6.5 ❌ LOSER LOSER CHICKEN BOOZER
📝 Key Reasoning:: Giants’ offensive line grades at 71.6, holding up against KC’s pass rush (EPA/play +0.06). NYG’s secondary coverage (73.4 grade) ranks top-12, capable of limiting KC’s explosive passing game (EPA/pass +0.15). Chiefs’ defense struggles against the run (EPA allowed -0.04), giving NYG an edge in controlling the clock.
🏈 Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (Sun, Sep 21, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
🏟️ Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: 75°F, 10% rain, 5-10 mph winds
🎯 Pick: Raiders +2.5 ❌ LOSER LOSER CHICKEN BOOZER
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📝 Key Reasoning: 65% sharp money on LV +2.5 vs 70% public bets on WAS, with line moving from -6.5 to -2.5 signaling strong RLM. FPI projects LV +1.5 win probability (75% for WAS but close margin), and PFF grades highlight LV's run D (83, 4th in yards after contact allowed) exploiting WAS's stacked boxes. Historical Week 3 dogs cover 56% on 3+ point RLM; light winds minimal impact.
🏈 Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (Sun, Sep 21, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)
🏟️ Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (dome)
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: Indoor
🎯 Pick: Bengals +2.5 ❌ LOSER LOSER CHICKEN BOOZER
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📝 Key Reasoning: 72% sharp $ on CIN vs 75% public on MIN -2.5, line from -5.5 to -2.5 (major RLM). PFF CIN pass offense (88 grade) > MIN secondary (75, allowing 18% deep passes); FPI near-even (MIN 54% win). Bengals run game undervalued despite 30th explosive rate; Week 3 road dogs cover 58% with 3+ RLM. Dome neutralizes weather.
🏈 Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (Sun, Sep 21, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
🏟️ Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: 75°F, 10% rain, 5-10 mph winds
🎯 Pick: Under 43.5 ❌ LOSER LOSER CHICKEN BOOZER
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📝 Key Reasoning: 68% sharp on Under vs 65% public Over, total dropped 47.5 to 43.5 (4-point RLM). PFF LV D (82 overall) limits WAS quick pressures (27% rate); FPI ~46 points but adjusted for Week 3 rust. Unders hit 55% in Week 3 with 3+ drop; winds favor defensive play.
🏈 Game: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Sun, Sep 21, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
🏟️ Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: 78°F, 15% rain, 10 mph winds
🎯 Pick: Rams +3.5 ❌ LOSER LOSER CHICKEN BOOZER
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📝 Key Reasoning: 72% sharp dollars on LAR +3.5 vs 59% public bets on PHI, line from -4.5 to -3.5 (RLM). PFF Stafford (91.8 QB grade, 7 big-time throws) exploits PHI secondary; FPI PHI 63% but close. Eagles OL top-3 but vulnerable to rollouts; Week 3 road dogs 57% ATS on 1+ RLM. Light rain aids D.
🏈 Game: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Sun, Sep 21, 4:05 PM ET, CBS)
🏟️ Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (dome)
🌦️ Weather Forecast at Kickoff: Indoor
🎯 Pick: Broncos +2.5 ❌ LOSER LOSER CHICKEN BOOZER
🎰 Est. Hit Probability: ~65%
📝 Key Reasoning: 94% sharp handle on DEN +2.5 vs 79% public on LAC, line frozen at -2.5 (RLM freeze). PFF DEN secondary (80) > LAC pass (84 but injury concerns); FPI LAC 57% win, near-even. Broncos OL top-3 per PFF; Week 3 dogs cover 56% on frozen lines. Dome no weather factor.
🏈 Game: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Thursday Night Football- Sep 18, 2025)
🎯 Pick: Dolphins +11.5 ✅ Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
🎯 Pick: Over 50.5 ✅ Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
21+ only. Gambling involves risk. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. For entertainment only. All picks hypothetical for fun—gamble responsibly!
The EdgeScout